Is California Registering Non-residents To Vote

Summary

In 2015, California passed major legislation to increase the land's voter rolls by simplifying the voter registration process. Under the New Motor Voter Act, the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) will electronically transmit information about DMV customers who are eligible to vote to the California Secretary of State, which volition add together eligible customers to the voter rolls unless they opt out.

We find that this police force has the potential to significantly alter the demographic composition of the California electorate, making the population of registered voters more representative of the state every bit a whole. Our estimates also propose that the new system may quickly aggrandize the voter rolls, adding more than 2 meg new registrants in the first twelvemonth.

Key implementation bug volition make up one's mind the bear upon of the New Motor Voter Human action. To ensure the law's success, the state should require DMV customers to adjure to their eligibility to vote as a precondition for completing their transaction. It volition also be necessary to mobilize new registrants aggressively if they are to become new voters.

New Motor Voter: A Turning Indicate?

California has many residents who are eligible to vote merely have not registered to exercise so-nigh seven.four million people co-ordinate to the latest estimates.¹ The land's registration rate used to be higher than the national average, just information technology now lags behind as many other states have increased registration over the past 10 to 15 years. California'southward voter turnout has also fallen behind that of other states over the same period, and low registration rates are a likely cause (McGhee and Krimm 2016). Higher voter registration and turnout rates could help amend borough engagement and make the voting population more than representative of the country as a whole.

In response to these trends, the 2015 New Motor Voter Act seeks to put more than voters on the registration rolls by simplifying the process of signing upwardly to vote at the DMV. The law (AB 1461, referred to here every bit New Motor Voter) marks a significant change to California's voter registration procedure. Slated to exist implemented in July 2017, New Motor Voter requires that the DMV electronically transfer its customers' registration information to the California Secretary of Land.ⁱⁱ The Secretarial assistant of Land and so adds all customers to the voter rolls who attest to being eligible and exercise not opt out-that is, who do not actively decline to register.

Over fourth dimension, New Motor Voter will reach virtually all California residents who are eligible to vote. The law applies to any DMV customers applying for a new commuter'south license or a new land ID, or renewing or changing their address on an existing commuter's license or ID, whether in person, online, or by mail.

The police force's opt-out provision is the most critical change, since many other elements of the process have been or were already slated to be incorporated into DMV transactions. The DMV has offered voter registration to customers since 1995, when the federal National Voter Registration Act took effect. More recently, the bureau has been developing a process for electronically entering new and updated registration records, and and so transmitting them to the Secretary of State (along with information nigh those who decide not to annals, so the Secretarial assistant of Land can follow upwards).

This written report seeks to set expectations for California's new law past answering three questions:

How might the demographics of the population registered to vote-in other words, the California electorate-change if the best hopes for the police are achieved and virtually every unregistered but eligible DMV client registers to vote?
How many new registrants can we expect in the get-go twelvemonth of implementation?
What factors influence whether people will really sign up to vote through the new process?

In our analysis, we use the roll out of a like law recently passed in Oregon to help prepare expectations for California. Notwithstanding, information technology is important to tailor these expectations to reflect of import differences between the two states, including the scope of the laws and the size and demographics of each state's population. For example, unlike in California, Oregon's law requires that the state identify eligible voters rather than request DMV customers to attest to eligibility.³

How Much Will the Electorate Change?

The goal of the New Motor Voter Deed is "to increase the number of eligible citizens who register to vote" (California Elections Code Sec 2261(b)). If the programme achieves its highest aspirations and registers as many people as possible, how volition the demographics of the electorate change?

The New Motor Voter program is ultimately limited by two factors: the number of unregistered just eligible Californians who obtain a commuter's license or ID and the number of those DMV customers who decline registration. The first constraint-DMV usage-is non a significant consideration. Our calculations suggest that virtually all residents who are eligible to vote somewhen obtain either a driver'south license or an ID.^four The second constraint is more than meaningful. Not every eligible resident will want to be registered, and DMV customers have the ability to opt out. Oregon'south experience with automatic registration, where approximately 7 percent of potential new registrants have declined and then far, serves as a guide.^five This is an optimistic assumption: the participation rate in California is unlikely to be above 93 percent, and it might be much lower.

Tabular array 1 shows how the electorate may change under a maximally successful New Motor Voter plan. The first cavalcade presents the share of various demographic groups among the population of currently registered voters, while the second column shows what might happen if the current electorate were combined with the population of eligible but unregistered residents under a highly effective New Motor Voter program. If the law succeeds, the new electorate will in many cases be notably different.

Table 1

SOURCES: US Census Electric current Population Survey, November 2014 Supplement (registration rates); California Secretarial assistant of State (registration rates for counties); The states Department of Agriculture (county metro classifications).

NOTES: Categories can and do overlap. The "major metro" counties are those that incorporate at to the lowest degree role of one of the metro areas of 1 million people or more: Alameda, Contra Costa, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Marin, Orange, Placer, Riverside, Sacramento, San Benito, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Yolo Counties. The "Asian/Pacific Islander" category includes all survey respondents who considered themselves part of either grouping lone or in combination with some other group (e.g., "white/Asian" or "Pacific Islander/African American").

In general, registering the unregistered population involves bringing a very dissimilar group of people into the electorate: one that is younger, more diverse, more mobile, poorer, and less educated. Figure ane shows some of the demographic groups that volition run across pregnant changes in registration nether a successful New Motor Voter plan. Those without a college pedagogy would constitute 6.iii percentage points more of the registered population, the children of strange-born parents 4.v points more than, and Latinos 4.0 points more.

Elections are decided on the margins, and these numbers advise that a New Motor Voter electorate could shift those margins.⁶ These shifts would make the registered population far more representative of the total population of voting-eligible adults.

SOURCE: United states of america Demography Current Population Survey, Nov 2014 Supplement.

NOTE: Categories can and practise overlap.

It is also worth noting that these shifts would bring the registered population closer to the population of all adults-including noncitizens who are ineligible to vote but are yet afflicted by government policy. Effigy 2 shows the potential bear on of New Motor Voter in improving political representation in the electorate. The nautical chart compares the gaps in political representation for several demographic groups in the current electorate and the potential New Motor Voter electorate, relative to all adults. For example, individuals with no college teaching comprise 39 per centum of the country's developed population, but only 27 per centum of the current electorate, significant that this group is underrepresented by 12 percentage points in the current electorate (shown by the top orange bar). New Motor Voter could reduce this gap to 6 points (bottom teal bar).

In all cases, the gaps are smaller under New Motor Voter, indicating the law may atomic number 82 to improve political representation. However, large gaps remain, specially for children of foreign-born parents, Latinos, and those with no college education. These gaps persist considering the noncitizen population differs considerably from the population of all eligible adults on these dimensions.

SOURCE: U.s.a. Census Current Population Survey, November 2014 Supplement.

NOTES: Chart compares the gap betwixt a group'southward share in either the electric current electorate or the New Motor Voter electorate and its corresponding share among all adults. Negative values indicate a group is underrepresented in the electorate. Categories tin can and exercise overlap. The Current Population Survey did not ask noncitizens most mobility, and then it is not possible to provide these estimates for those who moved in the final yr. For more detailed estimates, come across Technical Appendix B.

How Apace Could New Registrants Be Added?

The to a higher place estimates tell us what the electorate will look like if the new law leads the dandy majority of eligible but unregistered residents to sign up to vote. Simply New Motor Voter tin can simply add new registrants every bit quickly as eligible California residents use the DMV for a qualified transaction, and many DMV customers are already registered to vote under existing law.

The total number of eligible DMV transactions every year is large. Between July 2014 and July 2015, the DMV issued most 800,000 new eligible driver'due south licenses and 600,000 new IDs, processed 2.2 million address changes, and renewed around 5 meg driver's licenses and i million IDs. How many of these transactions might result in new registrants who would not accept been captured in the current system?

Two main uncertainties complicate predictions about the charge per unit of registration growth nether New Motor Voter. First, as the system adds new registrants at that place will be fewer potential registrants left to add together, making the constabulary a victim of its own success. The greatest potential for New Motor Voter lies at the outset. Appropriately, our analysis makes projections for the first year of implementation.⁷

Second, it is not articulate how many eligible residents volition agree to be registered under the new program. As described in more particular beneath, the plan will likely have a high charge per unit of adoption, though we cannot yet be certain nigh this success. To business relationship for this uncertainty, nosotros explore three scenarios: low adoption (10% of those who are given the opportunity choose to register), medium adoption (50%), and loftier adoption (93%, the current rate of adoption seen in Oregon).

Figure 3 presents the results of these scenarios, which suggest New Motor Voter could have a significant bear upon. Even the medium adoption charge per unit produces more than 1.iii meg new registered voters, increasing the land's registration rate by more than 7 percent. The loftier adoption charge per unit would result in about 2.4 million new registrants, an increment of almost xiv per centum. A low adoption rate, yet, would only increment the registration charge per unit past 1.5 percent or nigh 260,000 new registrants-a modify hardly more noticeable than the normal up and down of registration over time.

SOURCES: US Census Current Population Survey, Nov 2014 Supplement (estimates of current registration rates past demographic categories); California Department of Motor Vehicles (outstanding driver's licenses, number of renewals, address changes, and new driver'south licenses); US Department of Transportation (estimates of outstanding driver'southward licenses by historic period).

Note: For detailed estimates, see Technical Appendix C.

Figure 4 shows the projected growth of registered voters across the state under New Motor Voter, based on the high adoption scenario of Figure 3. Increases in registration will probable vary a groovy bargain across counties, from nether ten percent in Sierra and Tall Counties to effectually xx pct in Kings, Tulare, and Merced Counties.⁸ Large metropolitan counties are likely to see only a slightly smaller increase (thirteen.7%) than rural counties (fourteen.8%).

SOURCES: US Census Electric current Population Survey, November 2014 Supplement (estimates of electric current registration rates past demographic categories); California Secretary of Country (electric current registration rates by county); American Community Survey 2009-2013 (county migration flows); California Department of Motor Vehicles (county estimates of outstanding driver'southward licenses, estimated number of renewals, address changes, and new driver'due south licenses); US Department of Transportation (estimates of outstanding driver's licenses by age).

Notation: For detailed canton-level estimates, see Technical Appendix D.

Mobility is the chief driver of variation in projected registration rates across counties. Counties with a higher share of residents who have recently moved into the county will likely have more new registrants. Mobility trumps the other factors behind our county estimates-age and the number of outstanding commuter'south licenses-because mobility varies far more than from i canton to the next than either of these other factors.

The overwhelming majority (83%) of new registrants will come up from renewals (50%) and address changes (33%). Approximately 14 percent of new registrants will come through new driver's licenses and 3 percentage through new IDs. Compared to DMV transactions equally whole, new registrations through new driver'due south licenses and address changes are somewhat overrepresented because fewer of these customers are registered in the beginning place, leaving more potential new registrants for the New Motor Voter program.⁹

How Many Will Agree to Register?

The above analysis suggests that at that place are enough DMV customers who are eligible but not registered-on the lodge of 2.6 one thousand thousand each yr-to produce a substantial number of new registrants under New Motor Voter.¹⁰ As a effect, the critical limiting factor will exist non the size of the applicant pool but the rate at which those applicants concord to exist registered. If the adoption rate is depression-if eligible customers do not fill out the course or exercise non agree to be registered-then New Motor Voter will have but a limited bear on.

If the DMV requires customers to adjure to their eligibility to vote, loftier registration rates will exist likely.

Inquiry has repeatedly shown that participation in programs is strongly influenced by small alterations to the customer feel. Most notable is the distinction between opting out and opting in. Is the customer automatically placed in the programme and given the opportunity to turn down (opt out), or required to actively sign up in order to participate (opt in)? Opt-out programs accept significantly higher participation rates than opt-in programs, fifty-fifty if both opting out and opting in are made equally easy as possible. Participation rates higher than 50 percent would not be unusual for any opt-out plan (Thaler and Sunstein 2008).

The opt-out/opt-in distinction helps united states understand the extremely high adoption rate following the implementation of Oregon'south new voter registration police. In Oregon, the state identifies eligible voters using DMV records and sends a carte du jour in the mail that lets them either reject to register or choose a political party. Afterwards 21 days, all these voters are added to the rolls unless they have returned the card indicating they decline. This firmly establishes the programme as opt out, since the onus is on the DMV customer to decline to exist registered. Moreover, the system makes opting out relatively difficult, because information technology requires customers to notice a carte du jour in the mail service that they were not expecting, fill out that carte du jour, and so send information technology back if they desire to practise their opt-out rights.

In contrast, California'south New Motor Voter police may not result in an opt-out system. Unlike in Oregon, DMV customers in California will exist registered but if they affirm their eligibility to vote. After receiving records from the DMV, the Secretary of State is required to register anyone who attests to beingness eligible and who does non explicitly reject to be registered. Thus California citizens who assert their eligibility merely practice non answer the registration question will still be registered. This means the New Motor Voter programme starts as an opt-in organisation until the client confirms eligibility, after which indicate the organization defaults to registration.

The implementation of the eligibility question-which has yet to be decided-is a crucial factor in the eventual adoption rate. If the DMV requires customers to attest to their eligibility to vote, high registration rates will be likely, though perhaps notwithstanding not as high equally in Oregon.^eleven In fact, making the eligibility question mandatory is more important than the clarity of the grade's blueprint, at least as far as expanding voter rolls is concerned.¹² In sum, the main obstacle to success in the New Motor Voter plan is the adventure of low participation on the eligibility question, and this can be solved by making that question mandatory for customers to complete their transaction with the DMV.

Conclusions

California's New Motor Voter police has tremendous potential to increase the number of registered voters in the Golden Land. If the adoption rate is comparable to Oregon's, the population of registered voters volition become notably younger, more diverse, poorer, and less educated. This would bring the demographics of registered voters much closer to representing the demographics of all eligible voters and all adults.

The transition to this new electorate could happen faster than many have causeless. If implemented effectively, New Motor Voter could increment the registration rolls by more than than ten pct in the first year in nigh parts of the state. This reflects the sheer book of customers who cycle through the DMV for new driver's licenses, accost changes, and renewals on existing driver'southward licenses.

The main constraint will be the law's implementation. For maximum bear on, customers should be required to attest to their eligibility to vote as a precondition for completing their DMV transaction. Without this step, the system's success hinges on how aggressively the eligibility question is pressed on DMV customers.

The New Motor Voter arrangement will likely produce other benefits every bit well. County registrars devote substantial resource to maintaining a clean and up-to-engagement voter file, including the fourth dimension-consuming task of inbound new registration and alter-of-address forms by paw. The state has made a number of changes in contempo years that reduce that burden, but New Motor Voter will all the same help upgrade the system further by increasing the number of digitized DMV registrations.¹³

However, even if New Motor Voter does significantly boost registration, information technology does non solve the problem of low turnout; it simply removes ane barrier to participation. Many of the new registrants will be coming from disadvantaged communities and will exist disengaged from politics, never having been contacted by whatever candidate or campaign. These new registrants will receive official election information from state and local government agencies, and the reform volition have produced a net proceeds in voting even if only a minor number plough out to vote. But for substantial gains-and to achieve the more representative electorate highlighted in this report-there will accept to be a significant and ongoing effort to reach out to these new registrants and get them to vote.

In fact, ane potential hurdle for voter turnout is the DMV's relatively new two-stride registration procedure, where in-person customers who agree to annals to vote must utilize a separate computer last to place their political party and linguistic communication preference. Those registrants who neglect to complete the second pace may not exist registered with the party or language preferences they expect, which could create boosted obstacles to voting. Absent whatever changes, this two-pace procedure volition exist the backbone of the New Motor Voter system as well.¹⁴ This merely reinforces the need to take date and outreach seriously-registration nether New Motor Voter is not the aforementioned every bit voting.

As New Motor Voter implementation moves forrad, open up access to data volition be critical. To enable evaluation of the law's bear on, the California Secretarial assistant of State and the DMV should track the post-obit metrics, preferably by flagging them in publicly available data sets:

How many DMV customers respond the eligibility question and how many leave information technology blank?
How many DMV customers adjure to eligibility just do not answer the registration question?
How many DMV customers adjure to eligibility and concord to be registered but do not fill out any additional information?
How many new registrants use the New Motor Voter organization and how many register another way?
For those who use New Motor Voter to modify their registration, do they continue to be registered with the aforementioned party and with the aforementioned language preferences?

Voter participation in California stands at a crossroads. By fundamentally altering the process of signing up to vote, the New Motor Voter system could radically increase registration and improve the state's sluggish turnout rate. To accomplish these outcomes, the state should require DMV customers to verify their eligibility and should build a comprehensive data drove organization to help ensure the police force is working every bit intended. If implemented successfully, New Motor Voter could have a far-reaching positive impact on political representation and civic engagement in California.